Investori za\u010d\u00ednaj\u00fa by\u0165 pr\u00edli\u0161 optimistick\u00ed, pokia\u013e ide o svetov\u00fa ekonomiku pre rok 2023. Americk\u00e1 infl\u00e1cia, eur\u00f3pska energetick\u00e1 kr\u00edza a \u010d\u00ednska politika nulovej covidy s\u00fa st\u00e1le obrovsk\u00fdmi probl\u00e9mami. Finan\u010dn\u00fdmi trhmi prech\u00e1dza zriedkav\u00fd pr\u00edval optimizmu. Po v\u00e4\u010d\u0161inu roka sa vysok\u00e1 infl\u00e1cia v Amerike uk\u00e1zala ako znepokojivo pretrv\u00e1vaj\u00faca, eur\u00f3pska energetick\u00e1 kr\u00edza ohrozovala hlbok\u00fa recesiu a \u010d\u00ednsku ekonomiku su\u017euj\u00fa blok\u00e1dy s\u00favisiace s ochoren\u00edm Covid-19 a majetkov\u00fd krach. Investori teraz povzbudzuj\u00fa v\u00fdvoj na v\u0161etk\u00fdch troch frontoch. <\/p>\n
Americk\u00e1 ro\u010dn\u00e1 infl\u00e1cia v okt\u00f3bri klesla z 8,2 % na 7,7 %. Ceny zemn\u00e9ho plynu v Eur\u00f3pe klesli o dve tretiny oproti maximu v auguste. \u010c\u00edna uvo\u013enila niektor\u00e9 obmedzenia spojen\u00e9 s jej politikou \u201enulov\u00e9ho covidu\u201c a 11. novembra predstavila opatrenia na zmiernenie finan\u010dn\u00e9ho tlaku na zapleten\u00fdch developerov nehnute\u013enost\u00ed. Tento pr\u00edval spr\u00e1v poslal glob\u00e1lne akcieod polovice okt\u00f3bra vzr\u00e1stli o 13 %, ke\u010f\u017ee obchodn\u00edci stanovili ceny za men\u0161ie zv\u00fd\u0161enie \u00farokov\u00fdch sadzieb centr\u00e1lnymi bankami a sp\u00f4sobili pokles dol\u00e1ra.<\/p>\n
Bohu\u017eia\u013e, investori sa predbiehaj\u00fa. Americk\u00e1 infl\u00e1cia kles\u00e1, preto\u017ee preru\u0161enia dod\u00e1vate\u013esk\u00fdch re\u0165azcov s\u00favisiace s pand\u00e9miou sa str\u00e1caj\u00fa. Pred rokom zakotvili pred Los Angeles desiatky lod\u00ed, ktor\u00e9 \u010dakali na vylo\u017eenie, a ch\u00fdbali polovodi\u010de a ojazden\u00e9 aut\u00e1. Dnes je kotvisko pr\u00e1zdne, \u010dipsov je nadbytok a ceny \u00e1ut klesaj\u00fa. Tieto zlep\u0161enia bud\u00fa pravdepodobne pokra\u010dova\u0165. A od marca 2023 sa u\u017e nebud\u00fa porovn\u00e1va\u0165 ceny s rokom spred ruskej inv\u00e1zie na Ukrajinu, ke\u010f bola ropa lacnej\u0161ia. To sp\u00f4sob\u00ed \u010fal\u0161\u00ed pokles celkovej infl\u00e1cie.<\/p>\n
Ke\u010f v\u0161ak infl\u00e1cia ust\u00fapi, bude \u0165a\u017e\u0161ie s \u0148ou bojova\u0165 . Americk\u00e9 mzdy rast\u00fa ro\u010dne nad 5 %, preto\u017ee trh pr\u00e1ce je st\u00e1le mimoriadne nap\u00e4t\u00fd; na ka\u017ed\u00e9ho nezamestnan\u00e9ho pracovn\u00edka pripadaj\u00fa takmer dve vo\u013en\u00e9 pracovn\u00e9 miesta. Cie\u013e 2% infl\u00e1cie Feder\u00e1lneho rezervn\u00e9ho syst\u00e9mu je kompatibiln\u00fd s rastom miezd len okolo 3-4% (odr\u00e1\u017ea infl\u00e1ciu, rast produktivity a mo\u017eno aj o\u017eivenie podielu pracovn\u00edkov na ekonomickom v\u00fdstupe). Hoci sa rast pracovn\u00fdch miest spomalil, Fed bude pravdepodobne pokra\u010dova\u0165 vo zvy\u0161ovan\u00ed \u00farokov\u00fdch sadzieb, k\u00fdm sa trh pr\u00e1ce v\u00fdrazne neochlad\u00ed. Nejak\u00e1 dezinfl\u00e1cia by dnes mohla pr\u00eds\u0165 \u013eahko, ale n\u00e1vrat k 2 % si takmer ur\u010dite vy\u017eiada recesiu.<\/p>\n
Eur\u00f3pska energetick\u00e1 kr\u00edza prech\u00e1dza podobne iluz\u00f3rnym odkladom. Ceny zemn\u00e9ho plynu klesli, preto\u017ee z\u00e1soby s\u00fa vysok\u00e9 a po\u010dasie bolo mierne. Napriek tomu sa eur\u00f3pske hospod\u00e1rstvo pravdepodobne zmen\u0161uje \u2013 a to je len na za\u010diatku energetickej kr\u00edzy, ktor\u00e1 bude trva\u0165 najmenej dve zimy. Bud\u00faci rok by Eur\u00f3pa mohla naplni\u0165 svoje z\u00e1soby bez ak\u00e9hoko\u013evek rusk\u00e9ho plynu. Po\u010dasie by mohlo by\u0165 chladnej\u0161ie a glob\u00e1lne ceny skvapalnen\u00e9ho zemn\u00e9ho plynu by mohli by\u0165 vy\u0161\u0161ie. <\/p>\n
\u010co je hor\u0161ie, zd\u00e1 sa, \u017ee infl\u00e1cia, ktor\u00e1 bola doteraz sp\u00f4sobovan\u00e1 cenami energi\u00ed, sa udom\u00e1c\u0148uje. Britsk\u00e1 ro\u010dn\u00e1 infl\u00e1cia dosiahla v okt\u00f3bri 11,1 %; bez potrav\u00edn a energi\u00ed to bolo 6,5 %. V celej Eur\u00f3pe rast miezd a infla\u010dn\u00e9 o\u010dak\u00e1vania st\u00fapaj\u00fa, \u010do s\u0165a\u017euje rovnov\u00e1hu v boji proti infl\u00e1cii a podpore ekonomiky.<\/p>\n
\u010c\u00ednska ekonomika m\u00e1 najv\u00e4\u010d\u0161\u00ed potenci\u00e1l prinies\u0165 pr\u00edjemn\u00e9 prekvapenie v roku 2023, preto\u017ee bola tak po\u0161koden\u00e1 politikou nulovej covid a krachom v oblasti b\u00fdvania. \u00darady zverejnili 20 vylep\u0161en\u00ed svojich pravidiel o COVID a 16 opatren\u00ed na pomoc realitn\u00fdm firm\u00e1m. Na oboch frontoch v\u0161ak bude cesta pred nami dlh\u00e1 a \u0165a\u017ek\u00e1. St\u00fapaj\u00faci po\u010det infekci\u00ed znamen\u00e1, \u017ee hrozia \u010fal\u0161ie blok\u00e1dy. <\/p>\n
Riaden\u00e9 ukon\u010denie nulov\u00e9ho v\u00fdskytu covidu by podporilo rast, ale chaotick\u00e1 \u201ev\u00fdstupn\u00e1 vlna\u201c infekci\u00ed v popul\u00e1cii, ktor\u00e1 bola sotva vystaven\u00e1 v\u00edrusu, by mohla sp\u00f4sobi\u0165 paniku a e\u0161te viac po\u0161kodi\u0165 ekonomiku. Opatrenia v oblasti nehnute\u013enost\u00ed pomohli developerom a zn\u00ed\u017eili pravdepodobnos\u0165 finan\u010dn\u00e9ho kolapsu, ale dopyt po b\u00fdvan\u00ed, a teda aj pr\u00edspevok nehnute\u013enost\u00ed k rastu, pravdepodobne zostane utlmen\u00fd. Probl\u00e9my svetovej ekonomiky s\u00fa st\u00e1le v\u00e1\u017ene. Nebude ich to len kr\u010di\u0165 plecami.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Investori za\u010d\u00ednaj\u00fa by\u0165 pr\u00edli\u0161 optimistick\u00ed, pokia\u013e ide o svetov\u00fa ekonomiku pre rok 2023. Americk\u00e1 infl\u00e1cia, eur\u00f3pska energetick\u00e1 kr\u00edza a \u010d\u00ednska politika nulovej covidy s\u00fa st\u00e1le obrovsk\u00fdmi probl\u00e9mami. Finan\u010dn\u00fdmi trhmi prech\u00e1dza zriedkav\u00fd pr\u00edval optimizmu. Po v\u00e4\u010d\u0161inu roka sa vysok\u00e1 infl\u00e1cia v Amerike uk\u00e1zala ako znepokojivo pretrv\u00e1vaj\u00faca, eur\u00f3pska energetick\u00e1 kr\u00edza ohrozovala hlbok\u00fa recesiu a \u010d\u00ednsku ekonomiku su\u017euj\u00fa […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-28131","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-exo-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/extraslovensko.sk\/spravy\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/28131","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/extraslovensko.sk\/spravy\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/extraslovensko.sk\/spravy\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/extraslovensko.sk\/spravy\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/extraslovensko.sk\/spravy\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=28131"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/extraslovensko.sk\/spravy\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/28131\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/extraslovensko.sk\/spravy\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=28131"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/extraslovensko.sk\/spravy\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=28131"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/extraslovensko.sk\/spravy\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=28131"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}