\u00darokov\u00e9 sadzby sa v novom roku 2025 v\u00fdrazne zn\u00ed\u017eia. Pochm\u00farne predpovede, \u017ee iba hlbok\u00e1 recesia m\u00f4\u017ee stiahnu\u0165 z\u00e1vratn\u00fa infl\u00e1ciu sp\u00e4\u0165 na zem, sa uk\u00e1zali ako nespr\u00e1vne. Namiesto toho prudk\u00fd n\u00e1rast \u00farokov\u00fdch sadzieb, zlep\u0161enia na strane ponuky a plynutie \u010dasu odviedli svoju pr\u00e1cu dostato\u010dne dobre.<\/p>\n
Infl\u00e1cia je v bohatom svete na \u00farovni 2 % alebo bl\u00edzko nej a okrem obchodn\u00fdch vojen alebo in\u00fdch otrasov by mala zosta\u0165 n\u00edzka. Ekonomick\u00e9 spr\u00e1vy vo v\u00e4\u010d\u0161ine bohat\u00fdch kraj\u00edn s\u00fa pomerne slne\u010dn\u00e9. Rast sa l\u00ed\u0161i od siln\u00e9ho po priemern\u00fd, ale aspo\u0148 nie je negat\u00edvny. Ceny akci\u00ed s\u00fa st\u00e1le vy\u0161\u0161ie ako kedyko\u013evek predt\u00fdm. Nezamestnanos\u0165 je tesne nad historick\u00fdmi minimami.<\/p>\n
Ekonomika sa m\u00f4\u017ee vr\u00e1ti\u0165 do norm\u00e1lu, ale hospod\u00e1rska politika nie. \u00darokov\u00e9 sadzby s\u00fa na najvy\u0161\u0161ej \u00farovni od obdobia pred finan\u010dnou kr\u00edzou v rokoch 2007-09. V\u00e4\u010d\u0161ina centr\u00e1lnych b\u00e1nk \u2013 vr\u00e1tane Feder\u00e1lneho rezervn\u00e9ho syst\u00e9mu, Eur\u00f3pskej centr\u00e1lnej banky a Bank of England \u2013 za\u010dala zni\u017eova\u0165 sadzby a\u017e v lete alebo na jese\u0148 roku 2024. V\u00e4\u010d\u0161ie poklesy pr\u00eddu v roku 2025. Obchodn\u00edci predpovedaj\u00fa pribli\u017ene jeden percentu\u00e1lny bod \u010fal\u0161ieho zn\u00ed\u017eenia v Amerike, Brit\u00e1nii a euroz\u00f3ny.<\/p>\n
Americk\u00e1 vl\u00e1da teraz hospod\u00e1ri s deficitom 6,4 %, \u010do je najviac v povojnovej hist\u00f3rii, mimo Covid alebo finan\u010dn\u00fd krach. Donald Trump to ur\u010dite e\u0161te roz\u0161\u00edri. Mnoh\u00fdm rovesn\u00edkom z bohat\u00e9ho sveta sa od pand\u00e9mie darilo o nie\u010do lep\u0161ie pri obmedzovan\u00ed vl\u00e1dnych v\u00fddavkov, hoci deficity vyzeraj\u00fa znepokojivo aj vo Franc\u00fazsku a Taliansku.<\/p>\n
Politika sa znovu znormalizuje v roku 2025. Menov\u00e1 politika sa bude pohybova\u0165 r\u00fdchlej\u0161ie a konzistentnej\u0161ie ako fi\u0161k\u00e1lna politika. Centr\u00e1lni bank\u00e1ri b\u00fdvaj\u00fa triezvej\u0161\u00ed a predv\u00eddate\u013enej\u0161\u00ed ako politici. Ove\u013ea menej jasn\u00e9 je, k \u010domu sa z\u00e1kladn\u00e1 hospod\u00e1rska politika vr\u00e1ti. Posledn\u00fd riadny \u00fasek ekonomickej norm\u00e1lnosti bol pred piatimi rokmi. Ke\u010f sad\u00e1 prach, \u010do sa zmenilo?<\/p>\n
Z dlhodob\u00e9ho h\u013eadiska je jedin\u00fdm najv\u00e4\u010d\u0161\u00edm determinantom re\u00e1lnych \u00farokov\u00fdch mier pravdepodobne ekonomick\u00fd rast. Investori m\u00f4\u017eu pri stagn\u00e1cii len \u0165a\u017eko o\u010dak\u00e1va\u0165 vysok\u00e9 v\u00fdnosy. Pomal\u00fd rast popul\u00e1cie za\u0165a\u017euje pracovn\u00fa silu. \u00dadaje o raste boli otrasen\u00e9 pand\u00e9miou COVID-19, ale v\u00e4\u010d\u0161ina bohat\u00fdch kraj\u00edn je bu\u010f na svojom predpandemickom trende, alebo je trochu pod n\u00edm. \u013dudia, ktor\u00ed o\u010dak\u00e1vaj\u00fa, \u017ee bud\u00fa \u017ei\u0165 dlh\u0161ie, bud\u00fa pravdepodobne viac \u0161etri\u0165, \u010d\u00edm sa zv\u00fd\u0161i ponuka kapit\u00e1lu pri h\u013eadan\u00ed invest\u00edci\u00ed generuj\u00facich n\u00e1vratnos\u0165.<\/p>\n
Sadzby mo\u017eno bud\u00fa musie\u0165 chv\u00ed\u013eu zosta\u0165 vy\u0161\u0161ie, aby vyv\u00e1\u017eili v\u00e4\u010d\u0161ie fi\u0161k\u00e1lne deficity, ak napr\u00edklad vl\u00e1dy zv\u00fd\u0161ia v\u00fddavky na obranu, aby sa zabezpe\u010dili proti rast\u00facemu americk\u00e9mu izolacionizmu. A ak je svet teraz n\u00e1chylnej\u0161\u00ed na ponukov\u00e9 \u0161oky, tvorcovia sadzieb mo\u017eno bud\u00fa musie\u0165 vych\u00fdli\u0165 e\u0161te viac, aby odvr\u00e1tili infl\u00e1ciu. <\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
\u00darokov\u00e9 sadzby sa v novom roku 2025 v\u00fdrazne zn\u00ed\u017eia. Pochm\u00farne predpovede, \u017ee iba hlbok\u00e1 recesia m\u00f4\u017ee stiahnu\u0165 z\u00e1vratn\u00fa infl\u00e1ciu sp\u00e4\u0165 na zem, sa uk\u00e1zali ako nespr\u00e1vne. Namiesto toho prudk\u00fd n\u00e1rast \u00farokov\u00fdch sadzieb, zlep\u0161enia na strane ponuky a plynutie \u010dasu odviedli svoju pr\u00e1cu dostato\u010dne dobre. \u00darokov\u00e9 sadzby sa v novom roku 2025 v\u00fdrazne zn\u00ed\u017eia Infl\u00e1cia je […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[5],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-30182","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-exo-news"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/extraslovensko.sk\/spravy\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30182","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/extraslovensko.sk\/spravy\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/extraslovensko.sk\/spravy\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/extraslovensko.sk\/spravy\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/extraslovensko.sk\/spravy\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=30182"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/extraslovensko.sk\/spravy\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30182\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":30183,"href":"https:\/\/extraslovensko.sk\/spravy\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/30182\/revisions\/30183"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/extraslovensko.sk\/spravy\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=30182"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/extraslovensko.sk\/spravy\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=30182"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/extraslovensko.sk\/spravy\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=30182"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}