{"id":5982,"date":"2020-11-22T20:03:08","date_gmt":"2020-11-22T20:03:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/extraslovensko.sk\/spravy\/?p=5982"},"modified":"2020-11-22T20:03:08","modified_gmt":"2020-11-22T20:03:08","slug":"volby-prezidenta-usa-v-roku-2016","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/extraslovensko.sk\/spravy\/volby-prezidenta-usa-v-roku-2016\/","title":{"rendered":"Vo\u013eby prezidenta USA v roku 2016"},"content":{"rendered":"

Tento \u010dl\u00e1nok Vo\u013eby prezidenta USA v roku 2016, sa stra\u0161ne dobre hod\u00ed na porovnanie k vo\u013eb\u00e1m v roku 2020. V roku 2016 zv\u00ed\u0165azil Trump na rovnak\u00fdch volebn\u00fdch stojoch, mo\u017eno s malou \u00fapravou ako tohto roku. Zauj\u00edmave podobnosti s\u00fa doslova zar\u00e1\u017eaj\u00face oh\u013eadom reality, \u017ee asi ni\u010d republik\u00e1ni GOP neurobili vo veci mo\u017enosti fal\u0161ovania volieb v t\u00fdchto hlasovac\u00edch strojoch. <\/p>\n

Tak si to zhrnieme a zaspom\u00edname s v\u00fdrokmi Trumpa po vo\u013eb\u00e1ch 2016.<\/p>\n

Web m\u00e1 n\u00e1zov: We checked Trump\u2019s allegations of voter fraud. We found no evidence at all. Preverili sme Trumpove obvinenia z podvodu voli\u010dov. Nena\u0161li sme v\u00f4bec \u017eiadne d\u00f4kazy.<\/p>\n

Tak \u010do p\u00ed\u0161u t\u00ed, ktor\u00ed vo\u013eby prezidenta USA v roku 2016 preverovali<\/h3>\n

2. decembra 2016 o 12:00 GMT + 1 Prebiehaj\u00fa prepracovan\u00e9 spr\u00e1vy a novozvolen\u00fd prezident Donald Trump, ktor\u00fd tvrd\u00ed, \u017ee demokrati mali prospech z nez\u00e1konn\u00e9ho hlasovania, s\u00fa vo\u013eby 8. novembra pod pr\u00edsnym doh\u013eadom. Aj ke\u010f s\u00fa podvody s voli\u010dmi vo vo\u013eb\u00e1ch v USA mimoriadne zriedkav\u00e9, Trump, Mike Pence a \u010fal\u0161\u00ed po\u010das kampane, po\u010das pred\u010dasn\u00e9ho hlasovania a tento t\u00fd\u017ede\u0148 op\u00e4\u0165 tvrdili, \u017ee Trump m\u00f4\u017ee by\u0165 obe\u0165ou volebn\u00e9ho podvodu. <\/p>\n

S\u00e1m Trump tweetoval : \u201eOkrem toho, \u017ee som na volebnej \u0161kole zv\u00ed\u0165azil v drvivej lav\u00edne, vyhral som \u013eudov\u00e9 hlasovanie, ak odr\u00e1tate mili\u00f3ny \u013eud\u00ed, ktor\u00ed volili nez\u00e1konne.\u201c<\/strong><\/p>\n

Teraz sme dokon\u010dili rozsiahlu \u0161t\u00fadiu podvodov s voli\u010dmi vo vo\u013eb\u00e1ch v roku 2016. Nena\u0161li sme nijak\u00e9 d\u00f4kazy, ktor\u00e9 by dok\u00e1zali nie\u010do podobn\u00e9 ako Trumpove obvinenia.<\/p>\n

Tu je to, \u010do sme urobili. Najsk\u00f4r sme predpovedali Trumpov volebn\u00fd podiel v okrese v roku 2016 v porovnan\u00ed s Romneyho v roku 2012. N\u00e1\u0161 \u0161tatistick\u00fd model \u010derpal zo \u0161irokej \u0161k\u00e1ly demografick\u00fdch faktorov – ako napr\u00edklad percento bielych, percento pris\u0165ahovalcov, percento bez vysoko\u0161kolsk\u00e9ho vzdelania at\u010f. Po druh\u00e9, odhadovali sme podobn\u00fd model demokratickej \u00fa\u010dasti pre Clintonov\u00fa v roku 2016 v porovnan\u00ed s Obamom v roku 2012.<\/p>\n

\u0160tatistick\u00e9 modely poskytuj\u00fa z\u00e1kladn\u00e9 vysvetlenie toho, ako dobre si Trump po\u010d\u00ednal v ka\u017edom kraji. Ot\u00e1zkou teda je, kde by mohol dopadn\u00fa\u0165 lep\u0161ie alebo hor\u0161ie, ako by tieto modely predpovedali, a \u010di jeho nadmern\u00fd alebo nedostato\u010dn\u00fd v\u00fdkon s\u00favisel s mo\u017en\u00fdmi zdrojmi podvodov.<\/p>\n

Neob\u010dania<\/strong><\/p>\n

Jednou z mo\u017enost\u00ed je, \u017ee pr\u00edtomnos\u0165 os\u00f4b bez \u0161t\u00e1tneho ob\u010dianstva bola spojen\u00e1 so zn\u00ed\u017eenou podporou Trumpa, preto\u017ee by sa tak mohlo sta\u0165 , \u017ee sa Trump s\u00e1m intimoval . Ale nena\u0161li sme o tom nijak\u00e9 d\u00f4kazy. Nasleduj\u00faci graf ukazuje mal\u00fd vz\u0165ah medzi percentom ob\u010danov, ktor\u00ed nemaj\u00fa volebn\u00fd vek, a neo\u010dak\u00e1vane vysokou alebo n\u00edzkou podporou Trumpa alebo demokratickou \u00fa\u010das\u0165ou (z technick\u00e9ho h\u013eadiska \u201ezvy\u0161ky\u201c z na\u0161ich regresn\u00fdch modelov).
\nV obidvoch grafoch je modr\u00e1 \u010diara zachyt\u00e1vaj\u00faca vz\u0165ah v podstate ploch\u00e1. To nie je v s\u00falade s pr\u00edlivom ob\u010danov, ktor\u00ed nehlasuj\u00fa pre Hillary Clintonov\u00fa. Fialov\u00e1 \u010diara v ka\u017edom grafe sumarizuje vz\u0165ah najm\u00e4 v okresoch stavu bojiska. Riadky s\u00fa op\u00e4\u0165 ploch\u00e9.<\/p>\n

\"Vo\u013eby<\/p>\n

Hlasovanie m\u0155tvych \u013eud\u00ed<\/strong><\/p>\n

\u010eal\u0161\u00edm tvrden\u00edm bolo, \u017ee niektor\u00ed voli\u010di hlasovali pomocou registra\u010dn\u00fdch z\u00e1znamov zosnul\u00fdch os\u00f4b. Trump dokonca vyhl\u00e1sil, \u017ee m\u0155tvi \u013eudia ho nebud\u00fa voli\u0165. Ak by sa to stalo, potom by \u017eupy s najv\u00e4\u010d\u0161\u00edm po\u010dtom ned\u00e1vnych \u00famrt\u00ed mali ma\u0165 neobvykle mal\u00fd podiel Trumpov\u00fdch hlasov a napriek tomu neobvykle ve\u013ek\u00fa demokratick\u00fa \u00fa\u010das\u0165. Zhroma\u017edili sme \u00fadaje o \u00famrt\u00ed v okresoch z rokov 1999 – 2014 z Centra pre kontrolu a prevenciu chor\u00f4b, aby sme toto tvrdenie otestovali. Nasleduj\u00face grafy hl\u00e1sia n\u00e1lez:<\/p>\n

\"Vo\u013eby<\/p>\n

Trumpovi sa v skuto\u010dnosti dar\u00ed lep\u0161ie v okresoch s vy\u0161\u0161\u00edm podielom ned\u00e1vno zosnul\u00fdch \u013eud\u00ed<\/strong> – ako ukazuj\u00fa st\u00fapaj\u00face modr\u00e9 \u010diary.
\nIn\u00fdmi slovami, Trumpov volebn\u00fd podiel je vy\u0161\u0161\u00ed, ako sa o\u010dak\u00e1valo – a demokratick\u00e1 \u00fa\u010das\u0165 je ni\u017e\u0161ia, ako sa o\u010dak\u00e1valo – v krajin\u00e1ch s v\u00e4\u010d\u0161ou popul\u00e1ciou zosnul\u00fdch. To je op\u00e4\u0165 v rozpore s tvrden\u00edm, \u017ee voli\u010di vyd\u00e1vaj\u00faci sa za m\u0155tvych \u013eud\u00ed pomohli Clintonovej a ubl\u00ed\u017eili Trumpovi.<\/p>\n

Manipul\u00e1cia s volebn\u00fdmi \u00faradn\u00edkmi<\/strong><\/p>\n

Jedna z interpret\u00e1ci\u00ed Trumpovho \u201ezmanipulovan\u00e9ho volebn\u00e9ho\u201c tvrdenia je, \u017ee \u00faradn\u00edci, ktor\u00ed viedli vo\u013eby, boli zaujat\u00ed vo\u010di Trumpovi. Ak je to tak, potom by sme sa mohli stretn\u00fa\u0165 s podivn\u00fdmi posunmi v tom, \u010di Trump alebo Clintonov\u00e1 viedli pri s\u010d\u00edtan\u00ed hlasov. Napr\u00edklad mo\u017eno po\u010det v jednom kraji by sa n\u00e1hle zmenil v prospech Clintonovej, ke\u010f skorumpovan\u00ed volebn\u00ed \u00faradn\u00edci za\u010dali vybavova\u0165 veci.<\/p>\n

V priebehu volebnej noci zhroma\u017edila Associated Press (AP) volebn\u00e9 v\u00fdnosy zo v\u0161etk\u00fdch krajov na \u00farovni krajov. Prihl\u00e1sili sme sa na odber informa\u010dn\u00e9ho kan\u00e1la s v\u00fdsledkami agent\u00fary AP pre prezidentsk\u00e9 vo\u013eby. Tak\u017ee v pr\u00edpade okresov po cel\u00fdch Spojen\u00fdch \u0161t\u00e1toch sme museli sledova\u0165, ako sa po\u010dty hlasov v priebehu hod\u00edn menili. Presk\u00famali sme 3 111 celkov\u00fdch krajov a po\u010das procesu s\u010d\u00edtania m\u00e1me 15 796 samostatn\u00fdch mier krajsk\u00fdch hlasov.<\/p>\n

N\u00e1jdeme iba 251 pr\u00edpadov (1,6 percenta z celkov\u00e9ho po\u010dtu), ke\u010f sa vodca volieb v okrese \u201eobr\u00e1til\u201c z Trumpa na Clintonov\u00fa alebo z Clintonovej na Trumpa, ke\u010f sa hlasy po\u010d\u00edtali. V\u00e4\u010d\u0161ina, 163, sa nach\u00e1dzala v bezpe\u010dn\u00fdch \u0161t\u00e1toch.<\/p>\n

Ak sa zameriame iba na okresy, ktor\u00e9 sa oto\u010dili ku koncu procesu po\u010d\u00edtania – presne vtedy, ke\u010f si mysl\u00edte, \u017ee by t\u00edto skorumpovan\u00ed \u00faradn\u00edci zakro\u010dili – do\u0161lo k 84 tak\u00fdmto vyletom, 24 v \u0161t\u00e1toch bojiska a 60 v bezpe\u010dn\u00fdch \u0161t\u00e1toch. Spolu tieto obraty predstavovali \u010dist\u00fd zisk 41 388 hlasov pre Trumpa (a 33 165 hlasov v \u0161t\u00e1toch bojiska). V \u0161t\u00e1toch bojiska bolo iba 12 letov od Clintonovej k Trumpovi<\/p>\n

In\u00fdmi slovami, je to opak toho, \u010do by sme o\u010dak\u00e1vali, keby boli v\u00fdsledky zmanipulovan\u00e9 proti Trumpovi.<\/strong><\/p>\n

Navy\u0161e, \u017eiadne z t\u00fdchto vybo\u010den\u00ed by nerozhodlo o v\u00ed\u0165azovi v takom stave. V dvoch \u0161t\u00e1toch, ktor\u00e9 Trump vyhral – na Floride a v Pensylv\u00e1nii – sa zvratmi iba zv\u00fd\u0161il jeho n\u00e1skok. V Arizone, Michigane, New Hampshire, Virg\u00ednii a Wisconsine obraty zn\u00ed\u017eili Trumpovu mar\u017eu, nikdy v\u0161ak o viac ako 6 833 hlasov.<\/p>\n

Na\u0161e zistenia samozrejme nenazna\u010duj\u00fa, \u017ee v prezidentskej s\u00fa\u0165a\u017ei v roku 2016 nedo\u0161lo k \u017eiadnym podvodom, ani to, \u017ee t\u00e1to s\u00fa\u0165a\u017e bola bezchybn\u00e1. Na \u00fapln\u00e9 pre\u0161etrenie tvrden\u00ed o podvodoch s voli\u010dmi vo ve\u013ekom rozsahu by boli potrebn\u00e9 podrobnej\u0161ie \u00fadaje.<\/p>\n

Na\u0161e objavy v\u0161ak d\u00f4razne nazna\u010duj\u00fa, \u017ee obavy z podvodu s voli\u010dmi vyvolan\u00e9 Trumpovou kampa\u0148ou nie s\u00fa zalo\u017een\u00e9 na nijak\u00fdch pozorovate\u013en\u00fdch vlastnostiach prezidentsk\u00fdch volieb v roku 2016. <\/p>\n

Neexistuj\u00fa d\u00f4kazy o mili\u00f3noch podvodn\u00fdch hlasov<\/h3>\n

Podpis – David Cottrell je postdoktorandom v odbore Kvantitat\u00edvne spolo\u010densk\u00e9 vedy na Dartmouth College. Michael C. Herron a Sean Westwood.<\/p>\n

\n

Tak\u017ee teraz si rad\u0161ej po\u010dk\u00e1me, lebo vraj 3 miliony mrtvol hlasovalo v roku 2020. <\/p>\n

Kraken ide\u0161, len aby si nezakopol o Cthulhu Mythos! \ud83d\ude42<\/strong><\/center><\/p>\n

\"Cthulhu<\/p>\n

In his house at R’lyeh, dead Cthulhu waits dreaming<\/p><\/blockquote>\n

Ph’nglui mglw’nafh Cthulhu R’lyeh wgah’nagl fhtagn<\/p><\/blockquote>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

Tento \u010dl\u00e1nok Vo\u013eby prezidenta USA v roku 2016, sa stra\u0161ne dobre hod\u00ed na porovnanie k vo\u013eb\u00e1m v roku 2020. V roku 2016 zv\u00ed\u0165azil Trump na rovnak\u00fdch volebn\u00fdch stojoch, mo\u017eno s malou \u00fapravou ako tohto roku. Zauj\u00edmave podobnosti s\u00fa doslova zar\u00e1\u017eaj\u00face oh\u013eadom reality, \u017ee asi ni\u010d republik\u00e1ni GOP neurobili vo veci mo\u017enosti fal\u0161ovania volieb v t\u00fdchto […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[11],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-5982","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-q-anon"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/extraslovensko.sk\/spravy\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5982","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/extraslovensko.sk\/spravy\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/extraslovensko.sk\/spravy\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/extraslovensko.sk\/spravy\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/extraslovensko.sk\/spravy\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=5982"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/extraslovensko.sk\/spravy\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5982\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/extraslovensko.sk\/spravy\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=5982"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/extraslovensko.sk\/spravy\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=5982"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/extraslovensko.sk\/spravy\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=5982"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}